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Jeffrey A. Miller, PhD, Gas-Lock Advisors CEO

Understanding energy problems requires a combination of knowledge and skills in fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and hedging strategies. Jeff is the complete package.

• PhD in Political Science with emphasis in economics. Knowledge of International affairs and global economic issues is crucial to understanding the dynamics of the oil market.
• As a college professor, taught seminars in energy policy.
• Directed inter-disciplinary team studying scientific, economic, and political aspects of energy issues.
• As a financial professional, nearly twenty years of fundamental analysis of energy stocks.
• Co-developer of technically based sector analysis including all major energy sub-sectors.
• Consultant to professional traders at all of the major Chicago exchanges CME, CBOT, and CBOE.
• Extensive experience with hedging strategies involving options and futures.
• Strong client orientation.

Jeff's Current Outlook

As I have for the last several months, I continue to expect more pressure on gasoline prices than on crude oil prices. The bottlenecks in the system relate to refinery capacity. These constraints were highlighted by Hurricane Katrina. More people now understand the fragility of the supply from refineries. Since the refineries are near peak capacity, it is difficult to perform even routine maintenance. It also takes only a small disruption to create a spike in wholesale gasoline prices.

Immediate directional outlook: Neutral
Gasoline price risk: High
Oil price risk: Moderate

Background Comment

One of my first experiences in the financial world was a study of the major companies in what is loosely called "the energy sector." There is actually a vast difference between businesses operating at various stages of the production and delivery process. To understand the economics of the oil and gasoline markets, you need to look at drilling, exploration, oceaneering, oil services, oil transportation, refining and integrated oil companies as each having completely different characteristics and roles in the process. Its only with this kind of understanding that you can appreciate situations like the current "energy crunch" where the problem is more at the level of the refineries, rather than at the level of oil production.